Sergio Martinez vs Miguel Cotto Preview

By Peter Wells:

Miguel Cotto (left) & Sergio Martinez (right)

With the sunset nearing on two sensational careers, Miguel Cotto and Sergio Martinez will engage for possibly the final time in a super-fight. Following Saturday night these two adored fighters will have a combined total of 99 professional fights.

Cotto 38-4(31) will make the bold move to Middleweight, having fought at Welterweight just 4 1/2 years ago. That risk is then levelled out by Martinez's recent injury troubles, his exceptionally preserved body is letting Martinez 51-2-2(28) down when he needs it most.

Martinez comes into the contest off the back of the brightest spell of his career - which at 39 is remarkable as he has improved with age. Since a controversial loss to Paul Williams (MD 12), 'Maravilla' has found a new level that puts him up their as one of the best fighters on the planet. Kelly Pavlik (UD 12) was left a bloody mess, Paul Williams (KO 2) was at the wrong end of one of the most spectacular one punch knockouts in recent memory in their rematch and Sergey Dzinziruk (TKO 8), Darren Barker (KO 11) and Matthew Macklin (RTD 11) were all tough but were found wanting as Martinez drew nearer to greatness.

Then in September 2012 he went on to silence Julio Cesar Chavez Jr (UD 12) with an excellent boxing display that he almost let slip as Chavez came close to pulling off a miraculous stoppage in the final round. After retaining the WBC Middleweight title that was so wrongly taken away from him, the cracks began to show as his body betrayed him in his homecoming in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Martinez was lucky to escape with a decision win against Martin Murray (UD 12). But injuries sustained in that fight have left the Argentinian on the side-lines for over 12 months.

One has to imagine that if Martinez's body is not where it should be, if any of those past injuries are still lingering, then Saturday night may spell the end of his amazing career. Martinez has promised that he feels 100%, but then again what kind of a fighter would admit to not being at his best before such a huge event.

Martinez dominates Chavez Jr before the infamous 12th round

Madison Square Garden in New York, where this contest will be held, has been a haven for Miguel Cotto and his beloved Puerto Rican fans. But his unbeaten streak there was ended in December 2012 by Austin Trout (UD 12), in a defeat that had many questioning how much Cotto had left. From the 7th round onwards Trout elevated himself to dominate Cotto, seeming close to stopping the boxing legend much like Manny Pacquiao (TKO 12) and Antonio Margarito (TKO 11) had done earlier in his career.

Cotto has already shown his bounce back ability in the past, rising from defeats to the aforementioned Margarito and Pacquiao to reign as world champion, but this time could be different. A 3rd round stoppage of Delvin Rodriguez was impressive but the opponent was tailor-made, and the step up in weight is a concern for a fighter that has many miles on the tank.

If Martinez has fully recovered from those harassing injuries then it seems likely that the bigger man can thwart Cotto's early aggression before the culmination of punches finally breaks him down.

However Martinez's style does not resemble that of Margarito or Pacquiao, although he hits harder than his knockout percentage suggests.

With all things taken into equation, one does believe that while the injuries will not be so apparent after so long out the ring for Martinez, they will have some lasting damage on the champion's qualities in the ring. His movement may not be up to the same standard we are so used to seeing, and that could be crucial against a Cotto that is so adept at making the ring feel like a phone box.

Cotto destroys Rodriguez last time out

Some have questioned Martinez's chin, especially Cotto's trainer Freddie Roach, but many of the knockdowns he has suffered in his career were flash knockdowns with the blame lying on his balance rather than his chin. Then in the case of the Chavez fight, the Mexican was around a stone heavier than Martinez come fight night, something Cotto will not be.

While not really having the physique of a Middleweight, Cotto should cope well with the move up in weight, but if he expends too much energy early on looking to take Martinez out of there, then he could be made to pay in the later rounds.

The pick is for Cotto to jump on top of Martinez early, giving the champion little room to manoeuvre. Sergio will struggle to find a rhythm but he will have opportunities to land his own heavy artillery as Cotto stalks. Cotto may send Martinez to the canvas in the opening five rounds, but Martinez's jab will then become more of a factor as he ekes out a bit of distance between the pair. This separation may be short lived however as Cotto closes in once again, Martinez unable to find an answer as Cotto goes in search of a late stoppage. The tempo and intensity will drop in the championship rounds as Cotto takes a unanimous decision win to become world champion in a 4th weight class.

But as this uncertain prediction shows, there are so many questions left to be answered, many of the answers will define how this fight will pan out.

A decent looking undercard sees Wilfredo Vazquez Jr 23-3-1(19) take on Marvin Sonsona 18-1-1(15). Last time these two met in 2010, Vazquez Jr won in 4 rounds but things have not gone quite to plan since for the Puerto Rican. In an explosive fight the tentative pick is for Vazquez to revive himself as a title challenger at Featherweight with a 6th round stoppage.

Elsewhere Andy Lee 32-2(22) should have too much for John Jackson 18-1(15) - son of Julian Jackson - over 10, while Jorge Melendez 28-3-1(26) will hit far too hard for late replacement Javier Francisco Maciel as he can win within 5 rounds.

Also watch out for the rising star Felix Veredjo 12-0(9) as he takes on Engelberto Valenzuela 8-1(3) in what could be another explosive performance.